Fifteen FRED-anchored factors, weighted and normalized to a single regime read between −2.0 and +2.0. Updated automatically. Open to critiques.
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.— Laurence J. Peter
Q2 2026: the read, quarter by quarter.
The latest move is −0.24 on the quarter. The index is a regime read, so watch the band it sits in, not the third decimal.
All fifteen, weighted.
Every factor in the index, its weight, and where it sits this quarter. Weights sum to 20.5; the reading is their weighted average, bounded −2.0 to +2.0. Each factor is dated to the period its data covers.
A model you can't critique is a model you can't trust.
The index is a regime diagnostic, not a crystal ball. It confirms turns, it doesn't call them. Most factors are coincident-to-lagging; a few (LEI, sentiment) lead. Use it for direction and discipline: first-lien posture, shorter duration, real stress-testing of exit assumptions.
15 factors, FRED-sourced, symmetric −2/+2 rubric, normalized by weight. 13 of 15 factors live this quarter; the rest hold their last audited value, dated above. Window: 6 quarters.
The Haruspex Index is a personal macroeconomic research tool that uses my own proprietary hobby-level "Haruspex Macroeconomic Regime Engine", not investment advice and not a solicitation. It is a hobby read, not a forecast. Always read it with these things in mind.
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · University of Michigan (UMCSENT) · National Association of Realtors (FIXHAI)
How the read is built.
Straight from the model workbook. Fifteen FRED-anchored factors, each scored on a symmetric −2.0 to +2.0 rubric, weighted, and normalized to one number.
Scoring
Normalized score = Σ(factor score × weight) ÷ Σ(weights), bounded −2.0 to +2.0. Every factor scores on the same symmetric scale; inverted factors, where a lower raw reading is better, are handled by an "LT" direction in the rubric. Change a threshold or a weight in the workbook and the whole model re-scores.
Diagnostic bands
- +0.75 to +2.00 Inflationary Expansion
- +0.20 to +0.74 Neutral Expansion
- −0.15 to +0.19 Fragile / Artificial Stability
- −0.55 to −0.16 Stagflation Risk
- −2.00 to −0.56 Recessionary Contraction
Data and update status
Every series pulls from FRED. AUTO factors refresh from a single series; SEMI factors need a computed transform or a multi-series combine (spreads, ratios, interpolation) and get verified. Dates are ISO, portable to any system.
v1.0 FRED-native swaps
Two factors moved to FRED-native series: F10 Input Costs uses PCUOMFGOMFG (Manufacturing PPI, YoY%); F13 Real Estate uses FIXHAI (NAR Housing Affordability), which flipped direction and had its weight raised 1.0 to 1.5. That lifted the weight sum to 20.5; normalization adjusts automatically.
Data retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. UMCSENT © University of Michigan. FIXHAI © National Association of Realtors.